Market Insight May 1, 2023

Here is the Market Insight for the week of May 1, 2023:

Blitz Index Update

What is it?

Over the last month or so, the stock market had a modest gain before consolidating. In other words, markets were up going into last month but then volatility declined so markets didn’t move up or down abruptly. Since the writing of our last Blitz Index update, the rise in stock prices adjusted the Blitz Index score from zero out of ten to be two out of ten.* Even at that score the Blitz Index suggests to be completely out of the market. 

Three components of the Blitz Index maintain a score of zero points. Those are impacted by: adjustments in interest rates, actions by the Federal Reserve, and consumer debt. Interest rates remained higher and the Fed continued its fight against inflation. Consumers also had higher debt in the latest monthly data than they did a year ago.**

Why does it matter?

With a current score of two, if conditions change then the Blitz Index could be signaling for us to get further invested. However, if markets struggle and prices drop on a week to week basis, then we could move back to a score of zero. 

With the Fed meeting this Wednesday, there is a possibility that they could lower interest rates. While that is not expected, we are cognizant that the unexpected can still happen. We are not making any large adjustments to the portfolios before the Fed Meeting on Wednesday. We are confident in our current positioning and our ability to adjust portfolios as conditions change. 

Other articles we found interesting this week:

Investors are making the wrong bet on a recession — and it’s going to cost them big time

JPMorgan Chase’s Dimon says ‘this part of the crisis is over’ with First Republic deal

Fed is set to raise rates yet again. After that, then what?

Current 401(k) portfolio

Our last 401(k) portfolio reallocation: 5/19/2022. 

Want more information?

The weekly market insight provides a window into the process we use in our investment management process. At Breakaway, we believe markets are always changing and require a nimble yet data-oriented approach. 

Our process attempts to identify trends and momentum in the financial markets. With that information, we align our clients’ portfolio accordingly in the hope to help our clients accomplish their life goals while attempting to lower the risk of a large drop in their portfolio.

Click here for more details about our investment management 

Sources:

*WSJ. “Value Line Geometric Index”. 5/1/2023. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/VALUG/historical-prices

**St. Louis Fed. “Non-revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized”. 5/1/2023. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/NONREVNS.txt

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: 

Educational use Only. The market update published by Breakaway Financial Group LLC (“Breakaway”) is intended to be educational in nature and is not intended to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. Accordingly, it should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation. 

Advertising and Marketing. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with advertising and marketing. This material is not suggesting a specific course of action or any action at all. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, insurance, legal or tax professional that takes into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor’s own situation. No person associated with Breakaway is a licensed attorney or tax professional and the information contained herein should not be considered tax or legal advice. 

Links to Third Party Content. This Market Update contains links to articles or other information maintained by unrelated third parties. You acknowledge and agree to the following: All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only because we believe that it may provide useful content. and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. We disclaim any responsibility for the link’s performance or interaction with your computer, its security and privacy policies and practices, and any consequences that may result from visiting it.  We do not control the content published by the third-party; we do not guarantee any claims made on it, nor do we endorse its sponsor or any of the content, policies, activities, products or services offered by any advertiser on the site. Breakaway assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided by the third party and inclusion or reference by Breakaway to any third party link should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. 


Important Information regarding Registration Breakaway Financial Group, LLC and/or Patrick Traverse offer investment advisory and financial planning services through Belpointe Asset Management, LLC, (“Belpointe”)500 Damonte Ranch, Parkway Building 700, Unit 700, Reno, NV 89521, an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registration with the SEC should not be construed to imply that the SEC has approved or endorsed qualifications or the services Belpointe offers, or that its personnel possess a particular level of skill, expertise or training. It is important to read disclosures pertaining to Belpointe Asset Management at this link https://belpointeasset.com/disclosure/.  Additional information about Belpointe and Patrick Traverse is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

Craig Stahlecker

Craig Stahlecker

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
The information provided is intended to be educational in nature and is not intended to be a recommendation for any specific business or tax strategy, plan feature or other purposes. Accordingly, it should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as solicitation of services.

Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with advertising and marketing. This material is not suggesting a specific course of action or any action at all. Prior to making any business or tax planning decisions, an individual should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, tax, legal, or business consultant professional that takes into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an individual’s own situation. No person associated with Breakaway Financial Group LLC is a licensed attorney, and the information contained herein should not be considered legal advice.