Markets Rebounded but the Blitz Index Is Not Optimistic
What is it?
As of last Thursday morning, markets were up for the week. That follows two weeks of positive price action. In early March there was a larger drop as news around banks lowered investor confidence. Below is a chart that shows the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VT) so far in 2023. This is a weekly chart so each candlestick represents one full week of price action in the markets.
Why does it matter?
While we have bought into some investments in the last few weeks we are still playing it safe and keeping a substantial amount of our allocation in cash or money market ETFs. VT has not gained back the losses from that harsh week around a month ago. Investor sentiment may be dampened longer than that initial week of pessimism in March.
“El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, warned that ‘fallout’ from the troubled banking sector was adding to the pressure on an already delicate economy. This economic contagion, which will play out over time, threatens to increase the challenges facing an economy that is dealing with inflation, a mishandled interest-rate hiking cycle, declines in personal savings, bouts of financial instability and a slowing global economy.”*
That type of market environment is in line with the Blitz Index score. As mentioned in prior market insights, the Blitz Index is a tool that suggests being anywhere from 0% to 100% invested in the markets. The Blitz index remains at a score of 0/10 and has been there for a few months now. We do not want to be fully invested in the markets as these risks continue to mount. However, we have to respect the markets as of late. With all the negativity to bring markets lower they have held up well broadly speaking.
Crypto Gains Traction as Banks Struggle
What is it?
The below chart compares the: Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW), and Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VT) over most of March. XLF was hit hard by the banking struggles. The market as a whole (VT) has held up alright, and BITW has gained some traction.
Why does it matter?
While some crypto advocates are against what regulators are doing, it may be what is needed for mainstream adaptation. If there is heightened regulation, then there is a chance the cryptocurrencies will become more valuable. After the FTX bankruptcy, there is still a poor investor sentiment around cryptocurrencies. However, as investors are able to custody those assets under more reputable names, there could be a broader adaptation to cryptocurrencies in the future.
On the other side of things, outside sources such as the government showed that they are willing to support banks or the financial industry if needed. Whether that is with greater liquidity or pauses in trading, there are systems in place to maintain investor confidence in the markets. Although that is true, we are not investing much into the financial sector at the moment. We see potential in other areas although some financial companies have performed well lately. On top of that, we have a risk off approach for the market as a whole, and would not want to put money at risk in a sector that has been underperforming as of late.
If you are interested in our Tactical Crypto model, feel free to reach out or mention so in your next meeting. This model can invest in a select few cryptocurrency ETFs with the option to hold cash or money market investments when we are not fully invested in the crypto ETFs.
Other articles we found interesting this week:
One of the world’s richest men knows why Silicon Valley Bank really failed: ‘People on iPhones’
Elon Musk plans China visit, seeks meeting with premier
Eyes on EU and US inflation figures on last day of Q1
Current 401(k) portfolio
Our last 401(k) portfolio reallocation: 5/19/2022.
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Our process attempts to identify trends and momentum in the financial markets. With that information, we align our clients’ portfolio accordingly in the hope to help our clients accomplish their life goals while attempting to lower the risk of a large drop in their portfolio.
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Sources:
*Chloe Taylor. “Top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns that ‘erosion in trust’ caused by banking crisis will lead to ‘economic contagion’”. 3/29/2023. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-economist-mohamed-el-erian-095602104.html
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